NFL Winning Picks

9/9 New Orleans (-6.5) MinnesotaExpect a similarly close content to last year’s overtime NFC Championship game, even without Sidney Rice out, as perhaps the New Orleans defense was a little lucky last year.

• The Pick: Saints to win, but Vikings beat the spread.

9/12 NY Giants (-7.5) CarolinaThe Giants suddenly potent passing attack, with the emergence of Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham should force the Panthers to pass just to keep up and limit their dangerous ground game. With Matt Moore entering his first year as the ordained starter and the original Steve Smith missing the entire preseason, that’s not a good thing.

• The Pick: Giants to win and cover.

9/12 Atlanta (-2.5) PittsburghAtlanta fans know as good anyone what it’s like to pin your hopes on Byron Leftwich to lead a team. Hopefully, for Steeler Nation’s sake, Big Ben is back sooner than later.

• The Pick: Falcons to win and cover.

9/12 New England (-5.5) CincinnatiThe Bengals could struggle to find their identity in the first few weeks. A successful rushing team a year ago, it’s highly doubtful the T. Ocho Show sees it that way. Look for the always prepared and ever-dangerous Patriots to take advantage at home.

• The Pick: Patriots to win and cover.

9/12 Tampa Bay (-2.5) ClevelandRule of thumb: Always pick against Jake Delhomme to carry a team, especially on the road. Now with Jerome Harrison instead of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in his backfield, it could be a matter of quarters, not games before Delhomme gets the hook.

• The Pick: Bucs to win and cover.

9/12 Jacksonville (-2.5) DenverWith Brandon Marshall gone, Demaryius Thomas hurt and Knowshon Moreno not yet at full strength, it’s anyone’s guess how the Broncos expect to score. Look for MJD and the Jags to run over Denver at home.

• The Pick: Jaguars to win and cover.

9/12 Indianapolis (-3.5) HoustonLast year the Colts edged out the Jags by 2 in week 1. Two years ago, they took the loss at the hand of the Bears. Not to say the Colts are slow starters, but a dangerous Houston team at home will keep it close.

• The Pick: Colts to win in a nail-biter, Texans to beat the spread. (more…)

Line: Tennessee (-6.5) OaklandPick with Points: OaklandPick Straight-up: TennesseeTennessee stands to pull out the Week 1 victory; however, this game will be much closer than most odds-makers think. Favored by a full touchdown, at least Vegas is fairly confident Oakland will find themselves outmatched when they hit the road to take on the Titans. While recent Raider tradition would hold this hypothesis true, the Men in (silver &) Black should take a giant leap forward this year and at least remain competitive in their opener. Finally free from the glorified sack of potatoes that’s been lining up under center since the Raiders selected QB JaMarcus Russell with the 1 pick in the 2007, suddenly it appears as if Oakland has some nice pieces in place on offense. Incoming quarterback Jason Campbell may not remind the Raiders faithful of the Rich Gannon glory days, but entering his 6^th season of NFL service he has already proven himself as a competent NFL signal caller, more than one could say about Russell. Second year WR Louis Murphy looks to be a steal out of Florida, showing flashes of greatness his rookie year amid rocky QB play, and who knows, with Russell gone maybe fellow second year WR Darrius Heyward-Bey won’t be a bust after all. QB-friendly TE Zach Miller will give Campbell a security blanket in case it takes him time to get clicking with his new receivers. In the backfield, Darren McFadden has the higher profile and elite pedigree, though Michael Bush may emerge as the more consistent runner. Either way, the Raiders can be confident in their production from the RB position. (more…)

Line: New York (-3.5) BaltimorePick with Points: BaltimorePick Straight-up: BaltimoreThough not quite against the grain enough to warrant an Upset Special, the Ravens will take the field at the New Meadowlands Stadium as slight underdogs when they square off against Rex Ryan’s Ravens, and this year’s darlings of HBO’s off-season show Hard Knocks. The head coach of Gang Green maintains the vaunted Jets D from a season ago will be just as fearsome with CB Darrelle Revis on the sideline, but excuse us if we aren’t quite so sold. With “Revis Island” suddenly open of air travel, look for Baltimore’s much improved passing attack to take advantage of both sides of the field. While the Jets contracted (emphasis on the ‘contract’) their defensive backfield, the Ravens spent the summer adding weapons. With WR Anquan Boldin moving from the desert to Charm City, Derrick Mason can finally play a more age-appropriate second fiddle in the receiving corps. The Ravens also brought in speedy wide-out Donte Stallworth; however, he will miss the early season with a fractured foot. QB Joe Flacco avoided a sophomore slump, actually improving on an already impressive rookie campaign in 2009 and should be positioned for a breakout year his junior year in the NFL. His numbers were no doubt aided by the dangerous RB Ray Rice coming out of the backfield, catching more passes than any other RB in the league, while providing a home run threat in the running game as well. (more…)

Line: Chicago (-6.5) DetroitPick with Points: DetroitPick Straight-up: DetroitThe Lions look to come back from just 2 combined wins over the past 2 seasons by matching their average seasonal win total in Week 1. Now a full year removed from Matt Millen’s mismanagement, look for a more results on the field as the Lions’ quickly make believers out of people who aren’t so obligated by blood-relation. Call us crazy, but not only do we think the Lions will beat the spread, Detroit will win this game on the road. With a fully healthy Calvin Johnson, not to mention Matt Stafford entering the year with a season’s worth of seasoning, the duo should look downfield with more regularity and success. Don’t fault the Bears for not being able to cover Megatron, as simply no cornerback in the league creates a satisfactory match up when he’s at full speed. The additions of WR Nate Burleson, pass catching TE Tony Scheffler and home run RB Jahvid Best will help to keep defenses honest and provide some protection for Johnson against the constant double team. (more…)

Line: Miami (-3.5) BuffaloPick with Points: MiamiPick Straight-up: MiamiLook for the Dolphins to easily cover a 3.5-point spread against the lowly Bills. Perhaps the story would be a little different if this were a late season game played on a frozen Buffalo field, but in a Week 1 match-up neither the weather nor the Bills defense looks to slow down Miami’s wildcat-heavy offense. With QB Trent Edwards looking forward to what should be another long season in upstate New York, perhaps a more competitive bet would feature a scoring contest between Buffalo’s offense and Miami’s defense. While Buffalo looks to have a solid 3-man running back committee, in the form of Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and Marshawn Lynch (though it remains to be seen if Lynch’s ankle will permit him to play or how much use Lynch would get regardless), in order to keep up with the Dolphins the Bills would likely have to resort to the pass. Miami should score early and often, with Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall making his Dolphin debut after coming over in an off-season trade from the Denver Broncos. (more…)